The pros and cons of early voting
Many politicians grouse that Pennsylvania’s primary elections are so late in the cycle that they almost become irrelevant in most presidential elections.
Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and the 14 Super Tuesday states have all had their say. With Pennsylvania’s Democratic Primary not coming along until April 28 (56 days or eight weeks after Super Tuesday), and 19 other states and five U.S. territories voting from March 10 until April 28, rank-and-file Commonwealth Democrats might consider themselves as nonplayers in the selection process.
But Democratic officials see it differently this year and don’t feel any candidate will have the 1,991 delegates needed for nomination coming into the Pennsylvania primary. The fact that no clear winner emerged after Super Tuesday means Pennsylvania will loom as a big prize.
Five other states hold primaries on April 28, including New York, which is even a bigger catch than Pennsylvania.
Of course, this could change if one or more candidates fall by the wayside between now and primary day. Billionaire Michael Bloomberg dropped from the primary competition Wednesday, throwing his support to former Vice President Joe Biden, and Elizabeth Warren ended her campaign Thursday, leaving it basically a two-person race between Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders.
The last time Pennsylvania made a significant difference in choosing the Democratic nominee was in 1976 when it helped put Jimmy Carter over the top.
The Democrats’ nominee is chosen mainly by pledged delegates selected though primaries or caucuses. Additionally, there are party leaders and elected officials, called ``super delegates,” along with at-large delegates who also can have a role in the selection.
The Pennsylvania Democratic primary is closed, meaning that only registered Democrats can vote. Pennsylvania awards 176 delegates of which 153 are pledged delegates allocated on the basis of the results of the primary.
Candidates must have at least 15% at the congressional district or statewide levels in order to be considered viable. The 153 pledged delegates will be allocated proportionally on the basis of the primary results.
Of these pledged delegates, between four and 10 are allocated to each of the state’s 18 congressional districts based on party registration. The rest are super or at-large delegates. Among the delegates will be Gov. Tom Wolf, all nine Democratic U.S. representatives, including Susan Wild and Matt Cartwright from our area, along with U.S. Sen. Bob Casey. They will join 12 state members of the Democratic National Committee.
There will be nearly 4,000 pledged delegates to the national convention in Milwaukee. Independent of the result of primaries and caucuses, the Democrats will appoint 771 of these super delegates.
In contrast to all previous election cycles since super delegates were introduced in 1984, they will be allowed to cast nondecisive votes if a candidate has clinched the nomination before the first ballot, or decisive votes on subsequent ballots in a contested convention.
If the nomination is not locked up by April 28, Pennsylvania voters will have another matter to ponder — when to vote.
Among the sweeping new voting regulations in the state is the one that allows for early voting on mail-in ballots. Voters will have until 8 p.m. April 28 to have ballots in the hands of election officials, but they can vote much earlier.
There is danger in jumping the gun, though. Just look at what happened on Super Tuesday in some of the 14 states where early voting was allowed. Democrats who had already cast their ballots for Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar were blindsided by their unexpected withdrawals and announced support for Biden only two days before the primaries.
In addition, up until last Saturday’s South Carolina primary, there was a feeling among Democrats and even some Biden supporters that he had faded badly and might not be able to beat President Donald Trump. His strong showing in the Palmetto State, along with the Buttigieg and Klobuchar departures and their endorsements and other key endorsements leading up to Super Tuesday, resuscitated Biden’s campaign.
As impressive as Biden’s numbers were this week, they probably would have been even larger if early ballots had not been cast.
By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com