The NEPA College Football Playoff semifinals are here.

Penn State takes on Notre Dame in the Capital One Orange Bowl for a chance to head to the CFP national championship. Families are divided, friendships are on the line and most importantly, bragging rights are at stake - for who knows how long - as the Nittany Lions and Fighting Irish face off for a historic game not only on a national level, but even more heightened on a local level in the Times News area.

To start, this contest is as evenly matched as it gets. Both teams are good in the trenches, feature strong rushing attacks and play good defense. The Penn State and Notre Dame head-to-head series is as evenly matched as you will see. The series is even at 9-9-1.

This is the second time the two teams will be meeting in a bowl game. The two teams previously played in the 1976 Gator Bowl, a 20-9 win by Notre Dame. The two squads last played against each other in 2007, which was a 31-10 PSU victory, where Derrick Williams famously broke the game open with a 78-yard punt return touchdown.

There are several key match-ups that will end up deciding the game, so let’s dive right in.

In my opinion, the most important aspect of this contest will be taking care of the football. I know it’s an easy thing to say, because most games come down to which team wins the turnover battle, but in the case of this contest, whoever takes care of the ball better will walk out of Hard Rock Stadium with a win on Thursday night (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN).

The Fighting Irish (13-1) rank third in the country in turnover margin at plus-18. Notre Dame is one of the best teams in the country at forcing turnovers, led by Xavier Watts, who ranks second in the country with six interceptions. Notre Dame’s two takeaways in the Georgia game, while also not committing a turnover, was a huge reason for its 23-10 win over the Bulldogs.

Penn State has been on a terror of late at forcing turnovers, recording three interceptions against SMU – with two of those going for touchdowns – and tallying four takeaways against Boise State. Again, I can’t stress enough how important the turnover battle will be in this game.

Riley Leonard is what they call a “gamer.” It doesn’t always look pretty, but he makes big plays to help his team win. That’s exactly what Leonard did against Georgia last week. If you didn’t watch the game and just look at his numbers - 90 yards passing with a touchdown and 80 rushing yards - you would think that those stats, other than the rushing yards, don’t look that impressive.

But if you watched the game, you would see how he extended plays with his legs, got key first downs, and most importantly, didn’t turn the ball over. Keeping Leonard contained should be priority No. 1 for the Penn State defense. After seeing what Leonard was able to do against Georgia last week, I would expect defensive coordinator Tom Allen to have a game plan to spy Leonard, and with Notre Dame’s top running back in Jeremiyah Love banged up, Leonard is going to be counted on even more in the run game.

The Penn State rushing attack has been very good of late. On the season, the Nittany Lions (13-2) are averaging 202.2 yards per game on the ground, which ranks 18th in the country. Nick Singleton (1,015 yards, nine TDs) and Kaytron Allen (1,026 yards, eight TDs) are the only running back duo in the country to both have over 1,000 yards on the season.

Over the past four games, the Nittany Lions are averaging 230.25 rushing yards per game. PSU must establish the run first and foremost in this game.

Offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki needs to get the ball to the guys that have brought PSU to this spot. Which means getting the ball to Singleton and Allen, and of course, tight end Tyler Warren (98 receptions, 1,158 yards, eight TDs). Warren should have 10-plus targets in this game. Notre Dame has played aggressive man-to-man defense all season long, and Warren is a match-up nightmare in man-to-man situations. It’s expected that Notre Dame will bracket Warren, but the Irish can’t do it on every single passing play, so anytime Warren is one-on-one, he should be getting a look.

Again, keep it simple if you’re PSU. Get the ball to your playmakers early and often. Harrison Wallace III (46 reception, 723 yards, four TDs) will also need to make some tough, contested catches over the middle for PSU. The Fighting Irish defense will not be easy to run the ball against, as they’re giving up just 127.9 rushing yards per game.

Las Vegas has Notre Dame as a 1.5-point favorite.

Penn State junior quarterback Drew Allar is the “x-factor” in this match up. One thing that has been encouraging for me to see is that Kotelnicki has been dialing up some deep shots for Allar off play-action. Speedster Omari Evans has been making more of an impact in these types of plays, which was evident last week when Allar found Evans for a 38-yard strike for a score. If Allar can make on time and on point throws, use his legs to extend plays like he has this season (285 rushing yards, six TDs) and take care of the football, then PSU is going to have a really good chance to win this game.

Notre Dame is going to bring pressure, and Boise State did have success last week blitzing up the middle against Penn State, which resulted in four sacks. Allar is going to need to be able to avoid the pressure, set his feet and make plays down the field.

The Nittany Lions are also going to need to have a plan for all the pressure that Notre Dame is going to bring, and that’s where both Singleton and Allen could be used in the passing game. Both running backs are very capable in the passing game, and they should be used to counteract the aggressive Fighting Irish blitzing scheme.

With Penn State’s speed and physicality on the defensive side of the ball, I feel like Notre Dame is going to have a hard time moving the football. The Nittany Lions will also need to be very disciplined on special teams. That’s where Notre Dame could come up with extra points like it did last week against Georgia, when Jayden Harrison returned a 98-yard kick for a touchdown to start the second half.

PSU could also face the same challenges on offense against the Irish defense, but I think Allar and Warren, along with the Nittany Lions’ rushing attack, will do enough to keep the sticks moving. If Penn State is successful running the football early, I would like to see Kotelnicki stick with the run. I feel like last week there were too many times where PSU was just throwing it to throw it. Stick with what is working.

It looks like Abdul Carter is going to play, and I think Penn State’s front will be able to give Leonard issues, and I think he makes a few mistakes, and for the first time in a long time, the Fighting Irish lose the turnover battle.

My pick is Penn State 27, Notre Dame 20.