From the vicious cold of Central Pennsylvania to the warm desert of Arizona.

It will be quite the change in temperature for Penn State as it heads to Glendale, Arizona, to take on Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl in the College Football Playoff quarterfinal round Tuesday.

A quick temperature check of the Nittany Lions’ program points to warm, not yet hot, after a convincing 38-10 win over SMU in Beaver Stadium in the first round of the CFP.

The Penn State defense, paired with the frigid weather and raucous road environment, proved to be too much for the high-powered Mustangs’ offense. It was simply a dominant defensive performance, as the unit held SMU to just 253 yards of total offense. The Nittany Lions forced talented quarterback Kevin Jennings into three interceptions, with two of those returned for touchdowns. The Mustangs’ run game could never get going either, as they averaged just 1.6 yards per carry.

Penn State also did a good job of making plays behind the line of scrimmage, coming up with 11 tackles for loss.

I predicted an old-school type of performance against SMU from the Nittany Lions, and that’s exactly what you saw. Solid defense, coupled with a strong rushing attack, has always been a winning formula for PSU.

Nick Singleton (90 yards, TD) and Kaytron Allen (70 yards, two TDs) both averaged over six yards per carry and helped the PSU run game grind out 189 yards.

It was the perfect complementary football approach needed in the cold conditions.

However, this week, the weather will be quite different. It should be around 60 degrees by kickoff later tonight (7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN), but State Farm Stadium, which is the home of the Arizona Cardinals, has a retractable roof, so the environment will be temperature controlled.

That brings me to my first key match-up, which is Drew Allar and the PSU passing attack against the Boise State pass defense. The Broncos have not been good against the pass this season, giving up nearly 250 yards per game, which ranks 109th in the country.

Allar didn’t look great in the last game, but I also think the cold impacted him and the passing game as well. But in this environment, I think Allar will come to life like he did in the Big Ten championship game against Oregon.

I thought that was one of the best performances of his career, and I could see him playing with that type of confidence again later today. The opportunities will be there, Allar just needs to take advantage of them.

On the season, Allar has thrown for 3,021 yards with 21 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

The huge match-up in this one is the Penn State defense vs. Ashton Jeanty and the Boise State rushing attack. Jeanty is the top running back in all of all college football, as he’s rushed for 2,497 yards and 29 touchdowns.

However, the Penn State rush defense has been good all season long. The Nittany Lions are giving up just 100.4 rushing yards per game, which ranks seventh in the country.

This is the battle that is being talked about the most, and rightfully so. The key will be to keep Jeanty in check and not allow the explosive runs; to make him earn every single yard.

Jeanty is going to get his, he’s too good not to, but if the PSU defense can keep him to around 125 rushing yards, I think it will be in good shape.

Broncos’ quarterback Maddux Madsen is averaging just over 200 yards per game passing, but he’s done a nice job of taking care of the ball, throwing 22 touchdowns to just three interceptions.

Boise State hasn’t seen a run defense this good, so if it’s put in must pass situations, that is certainly advantage Penn State, especially with how the Nittany Lions fly to the football and force turnovers.

Las Vegas has Penn State as an 11.5-point favorite.

Protecting Allar will also be vital for the Nittany Lions. The Broncos like to blitz a lot, as they rank second in the country in sacks per game at 3.9.

I think the PSU offensive line will be able to hold up, and if they do, it could really spell trouble for the Boise State defense. The Broncos are one of the worst tackling teams in the country, and when they don’t get home, they’ve been vulnerable to explosive plays.

I think Penn State’s speed and physicality will once again be on display tonight. I think the Nittany Lions will be able to hit explosive plays both through the air and on the ground, and I think their defense will be able to contain Jeanty enough to put pressure on Boise State’s passing game. That’s the recipe for a win.

My pick is: Penn State 38, Boise State 17.