“We have to develop a finisher’s mentality. That’s coaches, that’s players, that’s everybody. We’ve got to learn from these situations. Painful lesson to learn for all of us. That’s number one.”

That quote was the first statement out of Penn State head coach James Franklin’s mouth at his weekly press conference on Tuesday. That statement is the direct result of the Nittany Lions (No. 7, 7-1, 4-1 Big Ten) collapse (39-38 loss) in the fourth quarter against Ohio State last week. A 15-point lead late in the game was erased by the Ohio State offense and the Ohio State pass rush.

The difference in this one was simple. The Nittany Lions couldn’t run block or pass block in the fourth quarter or really throughout the game, and the Penn State defensive line could not get to Buckeyes’ quarterback J.T. Barrett. Barrett was able to sit back in the pocket comfortably and spray the football wherever he liked to a talented and speedy bunch of receivers. He finished the day with 329 yards passing and four touchdowns and rushed for 95 yards.

Barrett has proven time and time again that when faced with pressure he’s not effective (see the second half of the Penn State game last year), but a lacking pass rush just couldn’t get to him. The loss of starting defensive end Torrence Brown earlier in the season and the loss of defensive end Ryan Buchholz during the game against the Buckeyes certainly thins out the defensive line group, especially the pass rushing unit. Keep an eye on that moving forward.

The disappointment with the loss to the Buckeyes is that once again, just like the USC game last season the Nittany Lions failed to make the plays at the end of the game to pull out a win. I think it’s fair to assume that Penn State can play with the best teams in the country, but what makes a championship team is the ability to force a three and out when your back is against the wall or drive into field goal territory when the game is on the line. Penn State is progressing, but obviously, it’s just not at the point where any lead is safe late in the game against an elite opponent.

Even with the disappointment of the loss, and the hopes of winning a second consecutive Big 10 title most likely gone, Coach James Franklin is going to do what he always does, which is stay positive. Actually, who can blame him? There’s a ton of football left to play and in the crazy world of college football anything can happen.

“I’m going to stay positive and progress is still being made. Three years ago, when we went there, we lost 38-10. There are no moral victories. As the head football coach, I got to be very honest with myself and I got to be very honest with our players and I got to be very honest with our coaching staff and with myself and ask the tough questions and be critical of the things that need to be critical, starting with me,” said Franklin.

“I also need to be aware of the progress that’s being made, as well, and be able to tell the players and the coaches what we’ve done well and what we need to do better. We are making progress.”

The margin for error against this week’s opponent Michigan State is zero. Ranked at No. 7 in the country, Penn State can absolutely not afford another loss or even a close win in some pundits’ eyes. The Nittany Lions must win in East Lansing and they must win convincingly. Defeating the Spartans on the road won’t be an easy task, so let’s look at some of the match-ups Penn State must win in this one in order to come away with a “W.”

First and foremost, Penn State has to run the ball better or at least eliminate the three and four yard negative rushing plays. Those type of plays really hurt Penn State last week, especially late. I think it will be important to establish the run early and it doesn’t have to be huge chunk plays in my opinion either. Picking up three, four, and five yards with Saquon Barkley putting his down and churning those legs in between the tackles will give this offensive line some confidence, which in turn could then open up the big rushing play.

Michigan State (No. 24, 6-2, 4-1 Big Ten) like Penn State’s last two opponents (Michigan, Ohio State) are good defending the run, giving up just under 90 yards per game on the ground. Overall, Michigan State ranks as one of the best in the country in total yards. The Spartans rank eighth in all of FBS, giving up a total of 283.4 yards per game.

Personally, what I would like to see from the Penn State offense this week is more explosiveness. The Nittany Lions didn’t come through with the big plays last week and that’s a credit to the game plan and skill of the Ohio State defense. One other thing I would like to see is if Penn State can’t run the football — and I mean a lot of what we’ve been seeing lately with the negative plays — that then offensive coordinator Joe Moorhead will open up the offense with the pass.

In my opinion, not many teams in the country can match-up with Penn State’s receiving group. I think on most plays they will win their one on one battles, so what I would like to see is if the run game isn’t getting you anything, then put the ball in Trace McSorley’s hands and let him throw it around. The Penn pass offense has speed and size at every position and a weapon in Barkley out of the backfield. I just think offensively the Nittany Lions have a distinct advantage with their passing game and sometimes it’s not utilized enough. The Spartans are giving up nearly 200 yards passing per game.

Las Vegas has Penn State as a 9.5-point favorite on the road.

It’s no secret the Michigan State offense has struggled at times this season. In fact, in three out of its last four games the Spartans have scored less than 21 points. The key for Penn State will be to put Michigan State in third and long situations and it can do that by defending well against the run. The Spartans will look to run the ball on first and second down with talented running back L.J. Scott (113 for 511 yds (73.0), 4 TD) and then use play action to move the chains with quarterback Brian Lewerke (159-of-259, 1,337 yds (167.1), 14 TD/4 INT). If Michigan State gets the run going however, then the Spartans can utilize play action on any down, which will not bode well for Penn State.

Look for Penn State defensive coordinator Brent Pry to dial up the pressure this week and stack the box because of the depth concerns at the defensive end position. I do think Penn State will be poised and determined after a tough loss last week. The Nittany Lions are simply the better team.

My pick is Penn State 41, Michigan State 17.