In the newly revised 7th Congressional District, which will now include Carbon County, the county is primed to play an outsized role on whether Susan Wild, a Democrat, will continue to represent the district or whether the county’s inclusion will tip the district to the Republicans.

There are several announced candidates hoping to snare the GOP nomination. Leading the way is Lisa Scheller, CEO of Silberline Manufacturing of Tamaqua. Scheller, a Lehigh County resident, was the Republican nominee two years ago for the existing 7th District seat, which includes all of Lehigh and Northampton counties and parts of the southern portion of Monroe County. Other announced Republican candidates in the new 7th District are state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie, R-Lehigh and Berks, and Kevin Dellicker, described as a veteran and small-business owner from Germansville, Lehigh County.

Although Scheller, with the support of then-President Donald Trump, had a commanding lead on election night, when the in-person votes were tallied, Wild overtook her thanks to mail-in ballots and carried the district by 4% - 52% to 48%.

The newly constituted 7th District includes all of Lehigh, Northampton and now Carbon counties, along with just Eldred, Polk and part of Ross townships in Monroe.

The current 7th District includes Eldred, Hamilton, part of Smithfield and all of Ross townships and the boroughs of Stroudsburg, East Stroudsburg and Delaware Water Gap. The rest of Monroe is in Democrat Matt Cartwright’s 8th District.

Under the new alignment, aside from Eldred, Polk and part of Ross, the other part of Ross and those municipalities that are now in the 7th District all go into Cartwright’s 8th District.

Carbon has been part of Dan Meuser’s 9th District. Meuser is a Luzerne County Republican. Under the new congressional map, Meuser and another representative, Republican Fred Keller, appear to be headed for a primary fight. Keller represents the 15th District, but he said that he plans to run for the rearranged 9th District seat that includes Northumberland County (the Sunbury area) where he grew up.

Originally, it appeared that Keller and Republican John Joyce of Altoona would do battle in the revamped 13th District, but Keller said he believes he has a better chance to go up against Meuser in what he believes is a more favorable geographic district even though Keller doesn’t live in the district.

Members of Congress must live in the state they represent, but they don’t have to live in their representative district, according to the U.S. Constitution.

The 2020 decennial census determined that while Pennsylvania showed modest population growth in the last decade it was not enough to preserve all 18 members of Congress. Under the new congressional map, Pennsylvania will have 17 representatives, meaning it also will have 19 electoral votes instead of 20. (The electoral votes are determined by the number of representatives and the two U.S. senators.)

Once a reliable Democratic stronghold, in recent years Carbon has become much more conservative, and Republicans have piled up a commanding voter registration lead that gets stronger with each passing year.

Starting about 2013, Carbon Republicans began making inroads in the Democrats’ voter registration lead. This trend accelerated in 2016 when it became apparent that Donald Trump was going to be the GOP presidential candidate, and the Republican advantage in registration has continued to expand. Along with it, the Republicans now control most of the county offices, whereas once they were mostly Democratic.

Here’s an irrefutable example of the county’s tilt toward Republicans and the drift away from the Democrats, whose more conservative party faithful believe the party’s ideology no longer matches theirs: In 1997, the Democrats enjoyed a voter registration lead of about 3,000. As of Feb. 21 in Carbon, registered Republicans outnumbered registered Democrats 20,960-15,709.

Also as of Feb. 21, in Lehigh, registered Democrats lead, 113,952-82,649. In Northampton, Democrats also lead, 97,655-79,393. In Schuylkill County, which remains part of Meuser’s 9th District under the reapportionment plan, Republicans have an overwhelming edge in registration, 47,947-28,482.

Two key Northeast Pennsylvania counties still lean Democratic, although Trump carried Luzerne County in both 2016 and 2020 by wide margins. There are 94,285 registered Democrats in Luzerne (part of Meuser’s 9th District and part of Cartwright’s 8th District) compared to 81,501 Republicans, while in Lackawanna (all in Cartwright’s 8th district), Democrats have a wider edge, 81,933 to 45,993.

Despite the 7th District’s favorable Democratic voter registration edge, Wild’s seat is one the Republicans hope they can flip this year, because, historically, despite the voter registration difference, Republicans tend to outperform their registration numbers. This means that Carbon, with the only Republican registration majority in the 7th District-to-be could be the difference between Wild going back to Washington and a challenger taking her seat.

By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com

The foregoing opinions do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editorial Board or Times News LLC.