GOP race for governor gets crowded
There are 349 days until the May 17, 2022, Republican primary election for governor of Pennsylvania. Maybe. (More on “maybe” shortly.) Already there are seven definite or possible candidates for the nomination, with the winner likely to face state Attorney General Josh Shapiro, the expected Democratic nominee, in the general election on Nov. 8, 2022.
I say “maybe” the primaries will be held on next May 17, because Pennsylvania might need to postpone them because of late-arriving data from the U.S. Census Bureau that is necessary to reconfigure the legislative and congressional districts. We already know that because of 2020 Census figures, Pennsylvania will lose one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives. With slight gains in population, some statewide legislative districts also will need to be reconfigured to conform to the goal of “one person, one vote.”
Senate President Pro Tempore Jake Corman, R-Centre, said it may be difficult to redraw the districts quickly enough for candidates to make decisions about whether to run, then get enough signatures to get on the ballot.
Corman insisted that nothing has been decided yet, that it will depend on when the states can get the data from the federal government. The likely date is toward the end of September, census officials are speculating.
With Gov. Tom Wolf, a Democrat, unable to run because of a two-term limit, Republicans are salivating over the prospects of capturing the governor’s office for the first time since Tom Corbett was defeated in 2013 by Wolf after just one term in office.
If the Republicans prevail, it is almost assured that they will pull off a trifecta by maintaining control of both the state House and Senate.
With a U.S. Senate seat at stake, too, Republicans believe they can make a clean sweep.
Now the question is: Who is the strongest candidate that the state GOP can put forward, and, equally important, will that nominee require the unqualified support of former President Donald Trump?
Two of the possible three candidates who will be banking on Trump’s support are residents of our region - U.S. Rep. Dan Meuser and his predecessor, Lou Barletta, former mayor of Hazleton. Barletta has formally announced he is a candidate; Meuser, whose district includes Carbon and Schuylkill counties, is said to be seriously considering running.
Barletta served four terms as U.S. representative before deciding at Trump’s urging to run for the U.S. Senate in 2018 against Democrat Bob Casey. Privately, Republicans were extremely disappointed at Barletta’s poor showing against a candidate they thought might be vulnerable in the Trump era.
With nearly 5 million votes cast, Casey won by nearly 658,000, or 55.7% to Barletta’s 42.6%. The other 1.7% votes were divided between two minor-party candidates.
Although Barletta picked up considerable name recognition across the state in the losing effort, some Republicans are concerned that his poor showing in 2018 will brand him with a “loser’s” label, which could be costly in a close race against Shapiro, who was the only Democrat to win a “row office” in 2020. Democrats lost the state treasurer’s and auditor general’s offices to Republicans.
In his second term, Meuser, whose voting record was all in with Trump and who has continued unflagging support for the GOP leadership playbook, is a virtual unknown outside of Northeast Pennsylvania, so if he decides to run, it will require loads of money just to get his name known, especially in the central, southern and western counties.
Meuser also might be counseled to sit on the sidelines this time around in deference to Barletta, because having two candidates from the same county is likely to split the vote and allow the third Trump supporter, state Sen. Doug Mastriano, R-Franklin, to grab the nomination.
The two sides might also agree to have Meuser consider a U.S. Senate run instead, since incumbent Republican Pat Toomey of Lehigh County is not seeking re-election in 2022.
Anyone with gubernatorial aspirations must consider that any postponement in running probably could involve eight years, a lifetime in politics, assuming that whoever is elected in 2022 could likely serve two terms. One-term governors, such as Corbett, are exceptions rather than the rule.
According to Mastriano, he met with Trump in mid-May and claims that Trump told him, “Doug, run, and I will campaign for you.” A Trump spokesman said the former president has not endorsed anyone yet.
Regardless of whether it is true or not, supporters of Barletta and Meuser are privately fuming, and if Trump did say it, it puts both of them between a rock and a hard place. They know that regardless of how angry they might be at this perceived betrayal, they can’t come out and criticize Trump for his precipitous action. While realistically neither could expect outright support from Trump in a primary, they were at least hoping for neutrality.
The other GOP candidates who have formally announced they are running are: Montgomery County Commissioner Joe Gale and former Corry Mayor Jason Monn. Other possible candidates are: State Sen. Dan Laughlin of Erie County and former U.S. Attorney Bill McSwain of the Philadelphia area.
By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com
The foregoing opinions do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editorial Board or Times News LLC.