Groundhog Day is Sunday, and just as he’s done for well over a century, Punxsutawney Phil will make his weather prediction at the crack of dawn.

If the famous marmot sees his shadow when he emerges from his burrow, folklore holds there will be six more weeks of winter.

If he doesn’t, spring is on its way.

Without a shadow of a doubt, Franklin Klock, a naturalist at the Carbon County Environmental Education Center, sees the importance of Groundhog Day.

He doesn’t, however, take much stock in Phil’s forecasts.

“I don’t honestly feel that it has any scientific basis. It’s just something that gets people through the rest of the winter, regardless,” he said.

Klock isn’t alone in shading Phil’s predictions. An editor from The Old Farmer’s Almanac, which has been predicting weather patterns for well over a century, along with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also don’t stand behind everything the furry forecaster has to say.

But Klock said whether Phil is right or wrong, some things are certain.

“It’s a reason to celebrate, it’s a reason to bring hope. It’s a festival,” he said of Groundhog Day hoopla. “There is a lot of partying, and things like that, that center around it.”

And understandably so. By the beginning of February, many are “sick” of winter, he said.

“We’re looking forward to spring and giving ourselves a reason to celebrate,” Klock said.

While Gobbler’s Knob — Phil’s home — might be the place to be Sunday morning, other prognosticating rodents — taxidermied ones, anyway — will do the same locally.

Much fanfare and celebration is anticipated when Grover the Groundhog “emerges” from his borrow at Sweet Arrow County Park’s clubhouse in Pine Grove at 1 p.m. Sunday. The same goes for Morris, who will be on hand at Jim Thorpe’s L.B. Morris Elementary School on Monday, and Schnogadahl Sammi, who will prognosticate from a field behind the former Cherry’s Family Restaurant in Kresgeville.

Ike Christman, treasurer of the Groundhog Lodge No. 6 of Monroe County, said the dawn event with Sammi starts with a prayer recited in Pennsylvania German (or Pennsylvania Dutch) dialect that’s then translated to English.

Sammi makes her prediction, and that, too, is read in both languages.

“In the past, I’m pretty sure she’s been pretty accurate,” Christman said.

In fact, a recent study by the NOAA has found that Sammi’s accuracy is greater than Punxsutawney’s Phil’s — but more on that later.

Christman said the event is “short and sweet” — unlike Sammi’s multi-syllable first name of Schnogadahl, which translates to “snow hill.”

“We do it because of the Pa. German folklore thing that has been done for years. We figured our lodge could do it in our area and have a little fun with it,” he explained.

The holiday has its roots in the Pennsylvania Dutch culture — and is a mix of weather lore and medieval Christian traditions.

It’s one of the reasons why the Die Schwadore Shalle Pennsylvania Dutch choir and Pennsylvania Dutch treats will be on hand for Grover’s Sweet Arrow Lake appearance.

Sarah Perreault, managing editor of The Old Farmer’s Almanac, respects the age-old tradition.

“As for the furry and famous forecaster Phil, the tradition of consulting animals to predict the weather can be traced back to 18th century Germany. They used badgers, hedgehogs and bears to forecast what was to come. When the animals came out of their dens and saw their shadows, it was a sign that cold temperatures persisted and farmers had to wait to sow crops,” she said.

It’s similar to how, centuries ago, folks used to observe natural phenomena and notice corresponding weather patterns, Perreault said. For example, a long and harsh winter seemed to follow oaks abundantly full of acorns or a milder winter was said to occur when bees built their nests low to the ground.

The Old Farmer’s Almanac doesn’t use weather folklore to make its forecasts, Perreault noted. No matter what Phil says, the Almanac is sticking to the winter forecast it issued in August, which called for slightly warmer than average temperatures and below-normal precipitation for the Keystone state.

“Our methodologies may be different, but we look forward to what Phil has to say,” she said.

NOAA’s National Weather Service issued a similar long-range prediction for the Northeast.

And while it doesn’t use the folklore technique for its forecasts, the weather service recently confirmed that Phil’s 2024 prediction of an early spring was “spot on.”

Data from the weather service shows that the contiguous United States recorded above-average temperatures in February and March last year.

Phil got it right — something that his “Inner Circle” of top hat- and tuxedo-wearing handlers claim happens year after year.

In all reality, Phil’s track record is far from 100% accurate. His rather dim 35% accuracy earned him a near-last place rank among 18 other groundhogs and weather procrastinators who’ve been forecasting for at least 20 years.

Even Schnogadahl Sammi, who started spinning forecasts in 1997, beat Phil with 38.89% accuracy to earn 16th place — one spot ahead of Phil. (With only 18 years of forecasting, Schuylkill County’s Grover was not included in the study — but did predict an early spring in 2024).

Erica Cei, a weather service spokeswoman, explained the methodology behind the lighthearted study.

“Our colleagues at NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information compare the outlook from Phil (and other groundhogs) against temperature anomalies; that is, whether temperatures were above or below average across the entire country. If February and March are near or above average, then a forecast for an early spring would be correct,” Cei explained.

Topping the list with 85% accuracy was Staten Island Chuck, who might best be remembered for biting the hand of former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He was later replaced by a stuffed groundhog.

General Beauregard Lee came in second with 80%, and lives in a groundhog-sized mansion called Weathering Heights in Jackson, Georgia.

Third place went to a bronze statue of a prairie dog in Lander, Wyoming. Lander Lil, as it’s called, has an accuracy rating of 75% despite once going missing and later found at the town dump, the weather service notes.

At the end of the rank, and perhaps not surprisingly, is a tortoise. Mojave Max of Nevada has an accuracy of 25%.

What defines spring?

Cei said there are two definitions. Astronomical seasons are based on the position of the Earth in relation to the sun, and meteorological seasons are based on the annual temperature cycle.

“Astronomical spring starts with the Spring Equinox, which this year is at 5 a.m. ET on March 20. Meteorological spring, however, always begins on March 1,” she said. “This date was chosen to simplify record-keeping and to make it easier to compare seasons year-over-year.”

Klock, not wanting to give Phil any shade, knows that spring is on its way — whether astronomical or meteorological.

“The most obvious sign, and you can’t change this, is the days are getting longer,” he said. “You can’t change the sun, you can’t change the rotation of the earth.”

Just a month ago, he said, he recalled leaving his shift at the environmental education center near Jim Thorpe in darkness. It’s not that way anymore.

“We’re gaining daylight every single day,” Klock said.

There’s even a change in the way the sun “feels,” he said.

“There’s an old word that they used to use: apricity. It means the warmth of the sun, particularly on your face in the wintertime,” Klock said. “On (recent) days, when you turn to the sun and feel a little more ‘oomph’. That’s a sign to me that we’re sliding toward the end of winter.”