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PSU Column: Lions play for Big Ten title

Last week, when the Ohio State and Michigan game went into the fourth quarter, with the game still in doubt for the Buckeyes, Penn State faithful turned into pretty big Wolverines fans for just a few minutes.

Michigan was able to pull off the eventual upset, which then opened the door for the Nittany Lions to qualify for the Big Ten Championship if they were able to take care of business against Maryland in Beaver Stadium.

Penn State was able to do just that, defeating the Terrapins 44-7 to get back to the Big Ten title game for the first time since 2016.

So, opportunity has knocked, but will the Nittany Lions finally be able to walk through the door?

Penn State wasn’t able to seize that opportunity earlier in the season in a 20-13 loss to Ohio State, but surprisingly it has been presented with another shot to win the “big game.”

There’s no doubt if Penn State is able to beat the No. 1 team in the country in Oregon that will quelch some of the Coach James Franklin haters, although I don’t even think you can categorize Franklin’s detractors as haters any longer, because of the Nittany Lions’ struggles against top five opponents.

Either way, this is a really big chance for PSU to take advantage of the gift that was handed to them.

Now, onto the game that will be played later tonight (8 p.m. ET, CBS) at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis as No. 3 Penn State will take on No. 1 Oregon.

The first match-up I want to touch on and, in my opinion, this is probably the most important match-up in the game, and that is the Ducks’ front seven against the Penn State rushing attack.

Now, I have said countless times this season that the Nittany Lions’ running game has been way too inconsistent. The PSU rushing attack is averaging 194.7 rushing yards per game, which ranks 25th in the country — it has been improved of late with Nick Singleton looking to be back to his explosive self after nursing injuries midway through the season — but there have been many times throughout the course of the season where the Penn State run game was just nonexistent.

If the Nittany Lions are going to pull off the upset tonight, then they need to get championship-type performances from the offensive line, Singleton (733 rushing yards, 7 TDs) and Kaytron Allen (698 rushing yards, 5 TDs). It won’t be an easy task, as the Ducks feature one of the best defensive fronts in the country with Matayo Uiagalelei, Derrick Harmon, Jordan Burch and company.

On the season, Oregon is giving up just 112.3 rushing yards per game, which ranks 22nd in the country. However, in all of Oregon’s close games this season — a 37-34 win over Boise State, 32-31 win over Ohio State and a 16-13 win over Wisconsin — those teams have been able to run the football with some success.

The Ducks gave up 192 yards rushing to the Broncos’ Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty, 141 rushing yards to the Buckeyes and 130 rushing yards to the Badgers. So, if history is any indication, if Penn State can get around the 150-yard rushing mark, then it should be in the game to the very end.

Against an Oregon defense that is sixth in the country in sacks per game (3.3) and eighth in the country against the pass (171.5 passing yards per game), the Nittany Lions will need to stay on schedule on early downs, and they won’t be able to do that without their rushing attack coming through for them in a big way.

On the flip side of that, Coach Franklin and defensive coordinator Tom Allen need to find a way to disrupt the rhythm of Oregon star quarterback Dillon Gabriel. Gabriel has thrown for 3,275 yards and 24 touchdowns with six interceptions this season. Gabriel has also rushed for seven rushing scores for the Ducks.

The obvious way to get Gabriel off schedule is to make him uncomfortable in the pocket with a pass rush. Getting Oregon in third and definite passing situation is also one of the critical must-haves for the Nittany Lions in the ball game. PSU needs to get its pass rush involved in the game.

Abdul Carter (10 sacks), Dani Dennis-Sutton (4 sacks), Zane Durant (3 sacks) and Amin Vanover (2 sacks) need to put pressure on Gabriel. Again, the only way to do that is to force the Ducks into passing situations, meaning the Penn State defense needs to be good against the Oregon rushing attack.

The Ducks have a very good running back in Jordan James, who has rushed for 1,166 yards and 13 touchdowns this season. Oregon is averaging 170.9 yards rushing per game, which is 56th in the country, while the Penn State rushing defense is ranked seventh in the nation, giving up just 97 rushing yards per game.

Las Vegas has Oregon as a three-point favorite over Penn State.

The last time that the Nittany Lions found themselves in the Big Ten Championship they defeated Wisconsin 38-31, coming back from a 28-7 deficit to win the game. Penn State was the underdog in that game and again finds itself as the underdog in this game.

Establishing the run on offense, and then on defense stopping the run to force Oregon into obvious passing situations should be the primary objectives for the Nittany Lions this evening — along with the obvious goals of winning the turnover battle and the explosive play battle.

Also, keep an eye on PSU quarterback Drew Allar in this one. A few times this season, Allar has made some big plays at the end of games to help the Nittany Lions come away with victories. In pressure packed drives on the road against both USC and Minnesota, Allar came up big.

I think Allar does it again tonight, sealing the win against Oregon with a game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter to secure the Big Ten title.

My pick is: Penn State 34, Oregon 31.