The cold months of winter
On his recent outdoor walks, Frank Snyder has been noticing many, many acorns on the ground.
“They always say that a very large mass crop of acorns predicts a very severe winter,” Snyder said.
But as a retired forester for the Department of Conservation and Natural Resources and a volunteer for the Schuylkill County Conservancy, Snyder said there’s no correlation between the amount of acorns and the severity of winter.
It’s all part of folklore — just like the “rings” on a woolly bear caterpillar or the appearance of squirrels are said to tell what Mother Nature has in store, he noted.
“We know that the acorns of red oaks and the white oaks are a cyclic thing,” Snyder said. “Weather does have an impact on them” but their yield doesn’t show what’s to come weather-wise.
Snyder said red oaks require two years to develop an acorn. After pollination, a baby acorn grows on a tree in the first year, and in the second year, a mature acorn develops and falls. White oaks take one year.
“Dry weather can have an impact on a lot of plants because the plant goes through stress. One of the ways they survive is by reacting by producing more seed,” he said.
So the abundance of red oak acorns could be a sign of a tree’s response to dry weather two years ago.
Another folklore tale Snyder is familiar with involves squirrels.
“They say squirrels with bushy tails indicate a bad winter,” Snyder said. “I never saw a squirrel without a bushy tail, so — so much for that.”
Susan Reier, a naturalist and youth educator with the Schuylkill County Conservancy, knows that some see the woolly bear caterpillar as a weather prognosticator.
It’s said that the wider the brown band in the middle of the caterpillar, the milder the winter will be.
Others believe the date of the first snowfall might play in to long term forecasts. An early snow, some believe, means snowstorms will be prevalent in the winter months.
Reier is not convinced, and recalled a severe snowstorm that hit the area around Halloween 2011.
“I remember I kept my snow boots on because the wind was so bad, I felt like I had to keep going out to check to see if trees were coming down,” Reier recalled.
The storm dropped over a foot of snow.
“Just like Pennsylvania weather does, it flip-flopped” she said. “It got warm over the next two weeks and what did I find in my backyard? Blooming forsythia.”
The early storm didn’t “predict” more of the white stuff. In fact, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) found that the winter of 2011-12 was the fourth warmest in recorded history.
NOAA and the Old Farmer’s Almanac recently issued forecasts for the upcoming season, with both predicting mild temperatures and an average amount of precipitation.
NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook is calling for warmer-than-average temperatures in Pennsylvania and precipitation that’s on par with typical winter seasons.
“This winter, an emerging La Niña is anticipated to influence the upcoming winter patterns, especially our precipitation predictions,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief of the Operational Prediction Branch of the Climate Prediction Center.
During a typical La Niña year, winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the south and cooler than normal in the far north. La Niña also brings more precipitation to the north and Canada.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac (www.Almanac.com/Winter) also expects a temperate winter for the Keystone State.
“Winter temperatures will be slightly warmer than normal, and below-normal precipitation is expected,” the Almanac notes.
It also predicts the coldest periods will occur between mid-January and early February and again in late February, and that precipitation will be below normal across the region.
Folklore tales, culled from the Old Farmer’s Almanac, also include:
• If bees build their nests in a protected spot, such as inside a barn or shed, expect a hard winter.
• As high as the hornets build their nests, so will the snow be next winter.
• If ant hills are high in July, winter will be snowy.
• If robins are seen near a house during the fall, the winter will be cold.
• Onion skins which are thicker than usual, indicate a rough winter ahead.
• Apple skins which are tougher and thicker, also tell us a colder winter is expected.