Penn State of Mind: Lions face Ohio State
7-0.
Penn State has put itself firmly in the College Football Playoff field by taking care of business up to this point in the season.
At noon today, the Nittany Lions will need to put together their most focused businesslike approach of the season as the No. 4 ranked Ohio State Buckeyes invade Beaver Stadium.
When looking at this game, it’s the usual when trying to dissect a big-time college football contest; it’s all about the matchups.
Before we get into the matchups, let’s first discuss the big talk that always surrounds this game, and that is that PSU head coach James Franklin can’t beat the Buckeyes, or really win a big game for that matter.
The Nittany Lions have won some pretty big games under Franklin, in my opinion, but I don’t think anyone can disagree when it comes to top five opponents that Penn State has struggled to come away with wins with Franklin at the helm. The numbers don’t lie, the stats don’t lie, but if there was ever a time to break through or break away from that narrative, it’s now.
The Nittany Lions are a talented team and they’re a tough team, which has been challenged on the road and has won in pretty much every way a team can win this season. Coach Franklin has done a good job beating every other team not named Ohio State or Michigan, and he’s done a good job at keeping Penn State in the conversation each and every year.
Opportunity is knocking, and the Nittany Lions just need to do what it takes on the field at noon today (FOX) to walk through the door.
Now, let’s get into the key matchups in this one.
The first thing we need to address is obviously who will be behind center for the Penn State offense? My best guess given the information we have at the moment is that Drew Allar will get the start. According to video of Allar participating fully at practice on Wednesday, I can’t see Allar not playing.
I think you will see Beau Pribula used a little more than we have in the past, because he showed last week that he can really make a difference with his ability to run. But for Penn State to go where it needs to go, Allar’s ability to push the ball down the field in the passing game is what’s going to help take it there.
The Ohio State defense is a problem. The Buckeyes have been very good defensively this season under defensive coordinator Jim Knowles. Ohio State has the second-ranked defense in the country, and it’s giving up just 11.9 points per game. The only game the Buckeyes didn’t play well in defensively was the Oregon game when they gave up 341 yards passing and two touchdowns to Dillon Gabriel and the Ducks. They also gave up 155 yards rushing at five yards per carry in that game. But we’re also talking about the No. 1 team in the country in Oregon, so that needs to be considered as well.
That’s where Allar is going to come in and obviously where the Penn State rushing attack is going to come in as well. Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen need to be able to put together some gash plays to soften the Ohio State defense up a little bit in this ball game. That will then give either Allen or Pribula the ability to attack down the field, which I think they can do in this game.
Tyler Warren at tight end has been a game-changer and he will certainly attract a lot of Ohio State’s attention, so Penn State receivers Harrison Wallace III, Liam Clifford, Julian Fleming and Omari Evans are going to need to step up and make some big plays.
Up to this point, PSU offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has done a great job of designing explosive plays, as the Nittany Lions rank second in the country in explosive play percentage. Ohio State has been good at not giving up the big play, as it ranks ninth in the country in limiting big plays. Still, I like how the Penn State offense has looked, especially when it has been able to run the football, which I think in the home environment, it will be able to do this afternoon.
The defensive side of the ball is where the game could really be won or lost for Penn State. Ohio State once again boasts one of the best wide receiver groups in the country and one of the best running back tandems in the country. But the passing game is where the Buckeyes could be explosive if PSU is not able to generate pressure on OSU quarterback Will Howard.
Howard has passed for 1,795 yards, with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. Freshman Jeremiah Smith has been tremendous and leads the team with 35 catches for 623 yards and eight touchdowns. Emeka Ebuka (546 yards) and Carnell Tate (334 yards) are also studs and could take it the distance at any time. Getting pressure on Howard in order to generate a few turnovers in this game is the key to a Penn State win.
Ohio State is coming into the game with a makeshift offensive line. The Buckeyes lost their very good starting left tackle for the season to an injury and their back-up left tackle had to leave last week’s game due to an injury, so OSU will probably need to move some of its players around. That is a good sign for the Nittany Lions, which once again have a fast and furious pass rush.
The pass rush has been inconsistent at times, but even when the Nittany Lions have not been able to finish sacks they’ve been able to generate pressure. Penn State’s defensive end opposite Abdul Carter is Dani Dennis-Sutton and he will be a game-time decision today as he left last week’s game with a groin injury. Even if Sutton isn’t able to play, the Nittany Lions should be able to get to Howard, especially in what should be an electric environment.
Las Vegas has Ohio State as a four-point favorite over Penn State.
One quick thing I’d like to point out, which will have a big factor in the game, is the Ohio State rushing attack. TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins are two of the best running backs in the country, but OSU has struggled to get its run game going at times. The Buckeyes rushed for just 64 yards at 2.1 yards per carry in a 21-17 win at home against Nebraska last week.
Penn State has been great against the run all season long. Now, I don’t anticipate those two running backs to have a day that bad against PSU, but if the Nittany Lions can hold the Buckeyes’ rushing attack to 100-115 yards and then really get after Howard and create a few momentum-swinging turnovers, I think that could be just enough to get over the hump.
My pick is: Penn State 24, Ohio State 20.