PSU Column: Can Lions get back in a groove?
Coming off a bye week, Penn State will face off with Kent State at home (3:30 p.m. ET, BTN) to try to get back into a groove after Bowling Green threw a scare into the Nittany Lions in Week Two.
It’s important that Penn State looks sharp later today with what looks like a tough No. 24 ranked Illinois team coming to Happy Valley next Saturday night for a big time Big Ten season opener.
Before we dive into the Golden Flashes, let’s first address the alarming injury news Penn State faithful received on Wednesday evening that Kevin Winston Jr. has suffered a significant injury, and he will be out indefinitely for the long term.
This is a huge blow to the Nittany Lions’ defense, which didn’t look very sharp in the first half against the Falcons. Winston Jr.’s playmaking will definitely be missed, but Penn State is fortunate to have depth at the safety position.
Zakee Wheatley will stay in his starting free safety spot, while Jaylen Reed will move back to safety from the starting nickel back spot. That still gives PSU two very good safeties.
Freshman Dajuan Lane is also a guy that the Penn State coaching staff has talked highly of this season, so expect to see him mixed in there. Antoine Belgrave-Shorter and Lamont Payne Jr. are expected to get depth reps there as well.
So, the next position up that head coach James Franklin will need to fill is the nickel cornerback spot or as Penn State likes to call it ... the Lion. There are a few candidates for that spot, but my guess is it will be Cam Miller. That means you will see talented transfers Jalen Kimber (Florida) and A.J. Harris (Georgia) at the starting cornerback spots.
Again, even with Winston Jr. out, this is one of the most talented secondaries you will see in the country. But until all these moving parts start to settle into their new positions and depth starts to form behind them, you will most likely see the Nittany Lions in a traditional 4-3 defense with three linebackers on the field and then a nickel cornerback on the field in obvious passing situations.
The now No. 10 ranked Nittany Lions will take on a Kent State team later today that has been struggling this season. After an 1-11 record last season, the Golden Flashes are 0-3, but they have played some tough competition in No. 7 ranked Tennessee and a still undefeated Pitt team. They did also have a loss to FCS opponent St. Francis PA, which is 1-2.
From the opening kick, this match-up should come right down to the Penn State rushing attack. Kent State is giving up 288 yards rushing per game, which is second to last in the country. The Nittany Lions are averaging 228 yards rushing per game, which ranks 22nd in the country.
You should see a heavy dose of Nick Singelton (233 rushing yards, 2 TDs) and Kaytron Allen (121 rushing yards) early on in the game. The PSU offense should be able to reel off explosive plays consistently.
“They’re a four-down front, which we’re used to from our defense. They use variations and middle of the field opening cover four and cover six. They will also close the middle of the field up with cover three and cover one,” said Franklin. “Again, things that we’re familiar with. Pressure overall about 33 percent. It spikes up a little bit on third down at 37 percent.”
Speaking of explosive plays, new offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki has done a solid job in his first two games. It looks like Penn State is going to be vastly improved in that area this season, as they already rank fifth in the country with a 22.2 percent explosive play percentage.
Also on the season, the Nittany Lions’ offense has tallied 14 plays of 20-plus yards. Penn State also ranks fourth in the country in yards per completion at 17.56 yards.
The Kent State offense has also seen its struggles this season, as the Golden Flashes are averaging just 201.3 yards of total offense per game and just over 50 rushing yards per game. It will be interesting to see how the new moving parts look in the secondary for Penn State, but Kent State does not possess the same offensive fire power that the Nittany Lions saw in Week Two from the Falcons.
I expect to see Kent State try and get the ball out quick to try and limit Penn State’s pass rushing attack, but it would be a good sign to see the Nittany Lions be a little more aggressive in coming after the quarterback. Like I noted, this team needs to be clicking on all cylinders and needs to look good with the Illini coming to State College next Saturday.
“They’re an RPO, tempo offense trying to base out of the spread — mainly out of 11 personnel. They will mix in some 12 personnel in as well,” added Franklin.
Las Vegas has the Nittany Lions as a 49-point favorite.
Penn State should get out to an early lead and never look back.
My pick is Penn State 59, Kent State 6.