The start of winter is a few weeks away, and forecasters are predicting that snowfall will be close to normal and more than last year.

“It looks like it will be a snowier winter than last winter but it won’t take much snow to do that,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Tom Kines. “Last winter, we really had no snow” across Pennsylvania.

AccuWeather, the National Weather Service and the Farmers’ Almanac all recently released forecasts for December, January and February. Their predictions vary, but all three agree that temperatures and precipitation will be controlled by a strong El Nino. The pattern is marked by warmer-than-normal waters in parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean and those temperature changes reshape the jet stream and weather patterns around the globe.

“El Niño is upon us,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok said. “It came on strong here in late summer, and it will continue to be strong and a dominating factor going into our winter forecast.”

In its long-range report, AccuWeather estimates that the Philadelphia region will receive between 16 and 24 inches of precipitation. The numbers are significantly higher than last year but close to the historic average of 23.1 inches.

For the winter of 2022-23, the Philadelphia region received just 0.3 inch of snow. The Lehigh Valley was also light, with only 6.3 inches.

Despite higher snow predictions, Kines expects that the start of winter will be rather quiet.

“I think we can expect the second half of the winter, meaning the second half of January, February and the beginning of March, to be a little stormier. There are more opportunities for it to snow during the second half of winter,” he said.

Long range forecast experts, he said, are banking on several snowstorms - or events with more than 6 inches of snow - to hit the Pennsylvania region as well.

The window for snow-producing nor’easters will open in late January through February which could dish out hefty snowfall amounts to Boston, New York City, Philadelphia and beyond.

“That will be our best opportunity to see some of these big Northeast systems,” Pastelok said.

Kines said temperatures will be normal to above-normal for the Pennsylvania winter.

In its long-range forecast, the National Weather Service is also seeing a warmer and drier season for the northern part of the United States. According to its Climate Prediction Center’s annual Winter Outlook, while warmer-than-average temperatures are favored across the northern states, the greatest chances for warmth are in Alaska, the Pacific Northwest and northern New England.

The National Weather Service is also predicting drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier of the United States.

But the Farmers’ Almanac believes that most of the United States is in for a cold and wet winter.

“There are indications that an El Niño, will be brewing in the latter half of 2023, lasting into the winter of 2024,” according to the Almanac. “If we consider that alongside our tried-and-true forecast formula, it means that cold temperatures should prevail throughout the country and bring snow, sleet and ice.”

The Almanac acknowledges that those in the Northeast who were spared from wintry precipitation last year, “should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with.”

The publication also predicts that the second week of January will be stormy, snowy and wet for the Eastern states. It also expects an East Coast storm to bring a wintry mess during the first week of March.

In keeping with weather, the National Weather Service announced that it will remove the “advisory” and “special weather statement” headlines from its weather warning system in favor of plain language.

The changes will likely become effective in 2025.

While it will drop the advisories and statements, the service plans to keep the “watch” and “warning” terminology.

The National Weather Service noted that social science research found widespread misunderstanding around the “advisory” term. To remedy the problem, it will move to plain language headlines to more clearly describe hazards without losing emphasis.

“Watch” means a threat to life or property is possible but not yet certain, while “warning” means one of those threats is happening or about to happen. An “advisory” means that an event less serious than a warning is about to happen, and a “special weather statement” provides information on events less serious than an advisory.

A current winter weather advisory starts with the words “Winter Weather advisory in effect” and then lists impacts. The plain language headline will lead with a simple hazard name in capital letters, such as “SNOW,” followed by a brief description of impacts.

The National Weather Service also established new criteria for winter storm watches and warnings, which are effective for the winter season.

The new criteria will take into account how much snow areas typically get and the impacts that might follow. Past warnings were issued based on how much snow was expected in a certain time frame.