Since I began writing these columns in 2015, and especially since it pretty much coincided with Donald Trump’s first run for president, I have been curious about how Carbon County became an almost overnight stronghold for Republicans and whether it showed any of these tendencies before 2016.

I was led to believe that Schuylkill County, on the other hand, had always been rock-ribbed Republican, so Trump’s success there was no surprise.

Trump made his announcement that he was a presidential candidate during a highly publicized event at Trump Tower in New York City on June 16, 2015, when he descended its Golden Escalator to loud cheers and applause.

I began writing columns for the Times News two weeks later, and I immediately noted that the once cozy Democratic voter registration edge in Carbon had dramatically begun to swing the other way until today when Republicans are the ones who have a comfortable lead, and the gulf is still widening.

Trump won the presidency in 2016 with incredible majorities in both Carbon and Schuylkill counties, on his way to capturing Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral votes. Trump buried Democrat Hillary Clinton by a better than 2-to-1 margin in Carbon (18,743-8,936). In Schuylkill, Trump prevailed by even greater numbers, nearly 3-to-1 (44,001-16,770).

Trump sought re-election in 2020, but Joe Biden, born in Scranton, won the contest even though today, 2½ years later, Trump has still not conceded defeat and continues to maintain that the election was stolen from him.

Once again, in Carbon and Schuylkill, Trump drew very impressive numbers, even though Biden made much of his Northeastern Pennsylvania heritage. Apparently, it didn’t matter. Trump defeated Biden in Carbon by a nearly 2-1 majority (21,984-11,212), while in Schuylkill, it was all Trump (48,871 to Biden’s 20,727). Biden flipped Pennsylvania, however, and captured its 20 electoral votes.

I wanted to analyze the presidential election results of the two counties in what I am calling the “modern era” (1928-2020). My mindset was that I would find few Republican wins in Carbon aside from the two Trump elections and even fewer, if any, Democratic wins in Schuylkill County. I was wrong on both counts.

In Carbon, the Democratic candidate won 10 of those elections, but the Republicans won 14, so my thesis that Carbon was solidly Democratic all these years was inaccurate.

In Schuylkill County, the Republicans won only 14 times, meaning that Democratic presidential candidates prevailed 10 times, far more than my expectation that it would have been 23 or 24 out of 24.

Going back to the 1928 race, shortly before the Great Depression set in, Herbert Hoover crushed Democrat Al Smith, governor of New York. In Carbon it was nearly 2 to 1, but in Schuylkill Smith made a much better showing and lost 46,033-40,424.

In 1932, when Democrat Franklin D. Roosevelt ran for the first time, I figured Carbon would embrace him with open arms, but the county narrowly went with Hoover in a failed re-election bid, 9,918-9,874. Schuylkill favored Roosevelt, 35,023-32,492. Both counties backed Roosevelt in 1936 over Republican Alf Landon and again in 1940 over Republican Wendell Wilkie. Carbon maintained its allegiance to Roosevelt for a fourth term in 1944, but Schuylkill preferred Republican Tom Dewey, 40,671-35,852.

Both counties went for Dewey in 1948, but incumbent Democrat Harry Truman, who took over after Roosevelt died in 1945, won a close race. Both counties went for World War II hero Gen. Dwight Eisenhower in 1952 and ’56 over Democrat Adlai Stevenson in both elections.

Probably one of my surprise findings in this search occurred in the 1960 campaign. Democrat John Kennedy narrowly beat Republican Richard Nixon in Schuylkill, 44,430-44,187, but Kennedy lost Carbon, 12,586-12,391.

The biggest blowout occurred in the 1964 election when incumbent Lyndon B. Johnson obliterated Barry Goldwater in numbers reminiscent of 2016 and 2020, but this time the Democrat was on top; in Carbon it was by a greater than 2-to-1 difference, and in Schuylkill, it was nearly 2-to-1. In 1968, Carbon favored Democrat Hubert Humphrey, while Schuylkill backed the eventual winner, Richard Nixon. In ’72, Nixon easily won in both counties. After Nixon’s resignation in 1974, Gerald Ford ran for a full term in 1976, but was beaten in both counties by eventual President Jimmy Carter. I found this to be a shocker, too.

Republican Ronald Reagan prevailed in both counties in 1980 and 1984 by comfortable margins both times. Republican George H.W. Bush won easily in 1988 but lost re-election in 1992 to Democrat Bill Clinton, who carried Carbon, but Bush prevailed in Schuylkill. Clinton won re-election in 1996 over Republican Robert Dole, and won both counties in the process, the last time the Democratic presidential candidate prevailed in Schuylkill.

In 2000, Carbon went for Democrat Al Gore, while Schuylkill backed the winner, George W. Bush. Bush won both counties in his re-election bid in 2004. In 2008, the last time Carbon went Democratic for president, Barack Obama took Carbon by about 500 votes, while Republican John McCain won Schuylkill by about 5,000 votes. In 2012, Republican challenger Mitt Romney captured both counties by comfortable majorities, but lost to Obama’s re-election bid.

By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com

The foregoing opinions do not necessarily reflect the views of the Editorial Board or Times News LLC.