The meal’s main centerpiece could be harder to find and cost significantly more than last year’s thanks to rising inflation and the spread of avian bird flu.

“My advice to shoppers is if you are serious about getting a turkey, get it ordered now,” said Brad Wenger, owner of Wenger’s Meats & Ice in Carlisle.

In September, retail prices for fresh boneless, skinless turkey breast reached a record high of $6.70 per pound, 112% higher than the same time in 2021 when prices were $3.16 per pound, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.

The agency reports the previous record high price was $5.88 per pound in November 2015, during an bird flu outbreak that year. And there’s no sign of a turnaround as the nation’s biggest turkey holiday approaches.

Even Butterball, one of the largest sellers of turkeys, recognizes consumers’ concerns about inflation.

In an August news release, the company noted those polled said they are not willing to compromise their guest lists or size of turkey, but are looking at other means to mitigate costs associated with the big meal. More than half said they will shop for deals while about 32% said they will be more economic about what sides they serve.

“While people are eager to gather with friends and loved ones this Thanksgiving, we are seeing external factors like inflation that will influence the way people celebrate,” said Rebecca Welch, director of retail brand marketing at Butterball, in the news release.

Shoppers who prefer fresh turkeys likely may face some of the biggest sticker shock. Partly to blame is the higher cost of supplies such as feed, fuel, fertilizer and labor.

Scott Karns, CEO and president of Karns Foods in Silver Spring Township, said fresh turkey prices are about 40% to 50% higher over last year. Still, he anticipates no issues with supplies as a small processor he works with assures plenty of turkeys will be available. Karns sells about 80% fresh turkeys versus 20% frozen birds.

Usually, shoppers begin ordering fresh turkeys after Halloween, and despite the higher prices Karns said he believes many people will continue those traditions.

“I think the person who buys a fresh turkey at Thanksgiving will buy a fresh turkey at Thanksgiving,” he said. “With the issue of the avian flu starting in the spring of this year, turkey has just been so difficult to get anytime of the year.”

The highly contagious strain of bird flu has affected nearly 47.7 million birds across 43 states this year, according to the United States Department of Agriculture. Several cases have impacted poultry flocks in central Pennsylvania, including a commercial turkey farm earlier this month in York County with 25,000 birds.

Still, grocery stores and butchers say meat cases will be stocked.

To ensure ample supplies, many grocery store chains, including Giant and Weis Markets, traditionally lock in frozen turkey orders early in the year. Both offer free turkey promotions for reward members who rack up enough points.

Giant spokeswoman Ashley Flower said they are focused on helping shoppers save as prices increase and demand is stretched thin. Giant is selling frozen Empire Kosher turkeys for about $5.99 a pound and Honeysuckle frozen young turkeys for $1.89 a pound, but a variety of other turkeys will arrive in cases starting next week.

“We start working on our turkey order early in the year to make sure we are set to meet the needs of our customers, and in fact, ordered more turkeys than we sold last year, so we are confident in our supply,” Flower said.

Weis spokesman Dennis Curtin said they have more than enough frozen turkeys, which are the highest demand bird for Thanksgiving. Weis also expects to sell plenty of fresh turkeys and placed a huge order with its suppliers.

However, Curtin cautioned fresh turkey availability can be impacted since flocks have been reduced by bird flu and processors struggling due to employee shortages and transportation issues.

“If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the past two and half years, it’s that supply chain problems occasionally happen,” he said.