TALLINN, Estonia (AP) - According to Russian state TV, the future of the Ukrainian regions captured by Moscow’s forces is all but decided: Referendums on becoming part of Russia will soon take place there, and the joyful residents who were abandoned by Kyiv will be able to prosper in peace.

In reality, the Kremlin appears to be in no rush to seal the deal on Ukraine’s southern regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia and the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk, even though officials it installed there already have announced plans for a vote to join Russia.

As the war in Ukraine nears its six-month mark, Moscow faces multiple problems in the territory it occupies - from pulverized civilian infrastructure that needs urgent rebuilding as colder weather looms, to guerrilla resistance and increasingly debilitating attacks by Kyiv’s military forces that have been gearing up for a counteroffensive in the south.

Analysts say that what could have been a clear victory for the Kremlin is becoming something of a muddle.

“It is clear that the situation won’t stabilize for a long time,” even if referendums eventually are held, says Nikolai Petrov, a senior research fellow in Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Program. “There will be the guerrilla movement, there will be underground resistance, there will be terrorist acts, there will be shelling. … Right now, the impression is that even the Kremlin doesn’t really believe that by holding these referendums, it would draw a thick line under it.”

Moscow’s plans to incorporate captured territories were clear from the outset of the Feb. 24 invasion. Several weeks in, separatist leaders of the self-proclaimed “people’s republics” of Donetsk and Luhansk, which the Kremlin recognized as independent states, voiced plans to hold votes on becoming part of Russia. While forces backed by Moscow control almost all of Luhansk, some estimates say Russia and the separatists control about 60% of the Donetsk region.

Similar announcements followed from Kremlin-backed administrations of the southern Kherson region, which is almost completely occupied by Russians, and in the Zaporizhzhia region, large swaths of which are under Moscow’s control.

While the Kremlin coyly says it is up to the residents to decide whether they formally want to live in Russia or Ukraine, lower-level officials talked about possible dates for the balloting.