News late last week that President Trump and his wife Melania have both tested positive for coronavirus adds more uncertainty to an already topsy-turvy presidential race.

The worldwide pandemic coupled with racial violence in large U.S. cities have made 2020 a chaotic year from the beginning, and the new COVID-19 twist from the White House just muddles the political landscape even more.

Knowing that Americans tend to vote their pocketbooks, Republican strategists were hoping that the president could ride the headwinds of a resurgent economy for a second term in the White House. Conservatives and Republican candidates have been applauding the V-shaped recovery of the Trump administration that has withstood a year of business shutdowns due to the worldwide pandemic. Democrats, meanwhile, have been hoping that high unemployment, a crippled economy and a slow recovery will discourage voters.

In the second quarter of 2020, the U.S. recorded its steepest drop in economic output on record. Despite the pandemic-driven recession, polling last month showed just 40 percent of Americans said the economy was in good shape, but that was a rebound from 31 percent from the previous month. More voters were becoming convinced that the administration’s pro-business recovery strategy and the laws of economics were working.

Among likely voters who rate the economy positively, Trump led by a whopping 82 percent to 17 percent. A quarter of the people polled said the economy is the top issue for their vote, and those economy-focused voters favor Trump by huge ratio of 80 to 18 percent.

Although much of the country has been in virtual lockdown since March, causing millions to become unemployed or face uncertainty about their futures, the economy has shown remarkable resiliency. With all of the chaos and economic hardship in many large metro areas, those living in rural and middle America have continued spending.

A traditional question facing American voters during a presidential election cycle is whether he or she is better or worse off today than four years ago. In an AP-NORC poll taken in August, 62 percent of respondents described the national economy as poor, up from 33 percent in January. But when asked about their own personal financial position, 63 percent answered that it was good.

That was a drop-off from 69 percent in January, but still a remarkable testament. Reporting on this poll, a PBS article noted a “paradox of the pandemic” is that 12.9 million people have lost a job and a dangerous rash of businesses has closed, yet the personal finances of many Americans have remained strong - and in some ways have even improved.”

Despite the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, one bright spot in the American economy has been the housing market, where existing home sales have hit levels not seen since 2010. The homeownership rate in the nation increased to 67.90 percent in the second quarter of 2020 from 65.30 percent in the previous quarter.

This is a big deal since two-thirds of all money wealth for the bottom 80 percent of Americans is in their primary residence while just 12 percent resides in other financial assets like stocks or bonds. The median national home listing price grew by 11.1 percent over last year, to $350,000 in September.

The Census Report shows that the homeownership rate for black Americans rose to 47 percent, the highest since 2008 (44 percent). The rate for Hispanics increased to 51.4 percent, the highest since 1994.

A big reason for the surge in homeownership is favorable mortgage rates which have dropped to historically low levels. Compared to 2018, a prospective homebuyer is saving around $300 on an average price home.

Hard to believe that it’s been nearly three decades since Democratic strategist James Carville coined one of the most famous political slogans in the history of political campaigns. Directed at the campaign workers, the phrase “It’s the economy, stupid” was pasted on the office walls of Democratic offices around the country during Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential run against the incumbent George H.W. Bush.

Now Trump, borrowing a page from Carville’s old playbook, is hoping to weather his COVID-19 diagnosis and ride the economic train to a re-election victory.

If the president is to swing the election in his favor, it will be on the strength of the administration’s free market strategy and the basic bread-and-butter issues that spur American optimism and lead to the American dream of homeownership.

By Jim Zbick | tneditor@tnonline.com