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Power of incumbency is strong, but not guaranteed

The power of the incumbency is the name given to the significant advantage held by those seeking re-election to an office they already hold. That is why when an incumbent decides not to run for re-election there are far more candidates than normal who seek the open seat.

When longtime officeholders such as state Reps. Doyle Heffley, R-Carbon (five terms); Jerry Knowles, R-Schuylkill-Carbon-Berks (six terms), and the veteran of them all, Bob Freeman, D-Northampton (12 terms), seek re-election, as they are this year, their opponent - if there is one - has a steep hill to climb.

Heffley and Freeman had no ballot candidates in the primaries, and both were seeking write-ins on the other ticket to lock up election in November. Those tallies haven’t been certified yet. Knowles has Democratic opposition, but in his heavily Republican 124th District, Taylor Picone of Berks County is a decided underdog.

Unless the incumbent is vulnerable because of some political gaffe, challengers find it virtually impossible to even make a credible showing, let alone prevail.

There are many reasons for this. Most notably is name recognition. The officeholder by virtue of his or her position commands media attention when introducing or supporting legislation, doles out grants to local municipal entities or organizations and is featured in meet-and-greet photo opportunities.

This favorable exposure also leads to an enormous advantage in fundraising to finance ever more costly campaigns. These candidates have an established donor base not only personally but also through their political party which will support their re-election.

While party leaders make a public show of neutrality in a contested primary, behind-the-scene actions sometimes tell another tale.

Although this year’s general election will focus on the presidential matchup between incumbent Republican Donald Trump and presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden, there are many other important races, too.

They include: all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives, including 18 in Pennsylvania (three in our area); about one-third of the 100 U.S. Senate seats, all 203 seats in the Pennsylvania House of Representatives and 25 of the 50 seats in the state Senate (just one in our area).

The president and members of the state Senate serve four-year terms; U.S. senators serve six-year terms, and U.S. and state representatives serve two-year terms.

To give you an example of how tough it is to dislodge an incumbent, one need look no further than the 2018 elections when 95% of incumbents who sought re-election in the Pennsylvania General Assembly won.

Nationally over the past half-century, close to 90% of incumbents have won. This winning streak has been helped along by reapportioning congressional and state districts into favorable enclaves for one or the other political party.

In the Times News five-county area, four open state house seats exist - the 123rd District, which includes 28 municipalities in Schuylkill County where Neal Goodman, D-Schuylkill, is retiring; the 125 District of parts of Schuylkill and Dauphin counties where Republican Michael Tobosh is retiring; the 131st District of parts of Lehigh, Berks and Montgomery counties where Justin Simmons is not seeking re-election, and the 138th District, which includes parts of Northampton County, where Marcia Hahn is retiring.

Despite the power of the incumbency, it is not always so automatic, as state Rep. Peter Schweyer, D-Lehigh, found out in the June 2 primary. Although he has been declared the winner by 55 votes, his upstart opponent, Enid Santiago, and her supporters have contested the outcome because of alleged irregularities.

Some of these irregularities were confirmed by elections registrar Tim Benyo last week, but he said they did not affect the outcome. He also said a new election will not be held, as Santiago requests, nor are any of her appeals valid since she missed the deadline for filing them.

The Lehigh County Election Board will hold a meeting on July 6 and announce at that time whether there is enough evidence to submit the issue to county District Attorney Jim Martin for a criminal investigation.

A virtual unknown prior to her candidacy, Santiago contends one election worker tampered with a voter’s ballot, a voting precinct opened an hour late, and some voters received the wrong ballots. She said she will request intervention by state Attorney General Josh Shapiro.

My sources close to Schweyer say he took Santiago’s challenge too lightly, although Schweyer says only that Santiago put up a good fight and brought out many new voters. The heavily Democratic 22nd District, which includes parts of downtown Allentown with a heavy percentage of Latino and African American voters, came out in force for Santiago, a native of Puerto Rico, who caught the public’s attention by saying, “Women like me are not supposed to run for office.” Her quest was to prove the political traditionalists wrong, she said.

Winning the Democratic primary in the 22nd District is generally a ticket to victory in November since there are no Republican candidates.

By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com