I passed along the warning from Gov. Tom Wolf and Health Secretary Dr. Rachel Levine just before Memorial Day weekend that Pennsylvanians should be wary about going to the New Jersey and Delaware beaches where large numbers of people could prevent social distancing, therefore making them more susceptible to contracting the COVID-19 virus.

The Bucks County Health Department reported on June 8 that 12 new cases of COVID-19 had been traced to contact with a New Jersey resident who attended multiple house parties at New Jersey shore locations.

Health Department Director Dr. David Damsker said there are likely to be additional cases among family members of the infected 11. Contact tracing is ongoing, he said.

“This is exactly why we can’t let our guard down now, even if it feels safe to be at the beach,” Damsker said. “One unlucky exposure can lead to a large cascade of cases down the line.”

Damsker said officials want everyone to enjoy the nice weather and have fun, but, he added, “let’s keep in mind that COVID-19 is still circulating in the community at baseline levels.”

State officials will be eyeing the statistics carefully in the coming weeks to see whether there is an uptick in cases and deaths.

With all of Pennsylvania in at least the “yellow” phase of the three-color coded system and with the withdrawal of stay-at-home orders and the reopening of some businesses, residents are being encouraged to wear masks and observe social distancing protocols in high-risk situations.

Carbon is the only area county in the “green” phase.

Because of a loosening of regulations, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that nearly half of the states and Puerto Rico have shown increases in cases in the last two weeks. Pennsylvania, New York and New Jersey are not among them, and the reason might be because of the tight controls that were put into effect in these states early on in the pandemic.

Knowing what we know now vs. what we knew in March when Wolf ordered stay-at-home orders for all Pennsylvanians and the closure of nonessential businesses, some counties in north-central and northwestern Pennsylvania probably never needed to be shut down at all.

Given that even until now, some of these smaller counties have had fewer than double-digit cases, it probably would have been safe to keep businesses open as long as they practiced the safety protocols. Of course, hindsight is always 20/20.

There also was a rising chorus of critics who assailed Wolf and Levine for slamming the brakes on the state’s economy for much longer than necessary. They are still fuming that restrictions are not being relaxed quickly enough, and there is uncertainty about what happens after the entire state returns to “green.” The jury is still out on that one, especially if the relaxation of restrictions results in a resurgence of cases or a late-year spike.

Health officials are really concerned about what impact the millions of protesters who took to the streets following the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis will have on participants. They said this information will likely not show up until near the end of the month.

Then, of course, there are the conspiratorialists who have maintained from the beginning that this is a hoax, not a real pandemic, some even believing that this is a Democratic plot to deny President Donald Trump a second term.

A few minutes with patients who contracted the virus - even those who were in great health - can make a compelling argument that this is deadly serious.

As of mid-June, this pandemic has taken more than 422,000 lives worldwide, including more than 114,000 (or about the population of the City of Allentown) in the United States. There have been more than nearly 7½ million cases worldwide, including more than 2 million in the United States that have been tracked by Johns Hopkins Medical Center in Baltimore.

There was some good news: Without stay-at-home orders, shutdowns and social distancing, COVID-19 would have infected nearly one in five Americans, or 60 million people, in the first few weeks of the outbreak, according to a study done at the University of California.

A separate study estimated that these precautions saved at least 3.1 million lives in Europe.

By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com