Number of potential Pennsylvania voters drops by 1.4%
Given the current environment, you might think that nearly everyone is buzzing about politics; trust me, they are not.
That’s especially true during the run-up to these ho-hum, off-year primary elections on May 21. Maybe things will pick up for the general election on Nov. 5, and they are certainly going to get a boost in 2020, a presidential election year.
The Pennsylvania Department of State reports that there were 1.4% fewer voters registered on April 22, the deadline for registration for the primaries, than there were for the 2018 general election.
Leaders in both parties said this is not surprising since last year’s election featured important contests for governor and U.S. senator, and each of the state’s 18 congressional seats was up for grabs using a rejiggered reapportionment map that allowed the Democrats to even up the delegation at 9 and 9.
Before to this year, Republicans had a 13-5 ratio thanks to maps their majority had drawn after the 2010 census but which were ruled to be gerrymandered by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.
After next year’s elections, the legislative map will be drawn again, and from all indications it appears as if Pennsylvania will lose one U.S. House of Representatives seat, dropping its number to 17. This will reduce the state delegation from 20 to 19, including the two U.S. Senators, Democrat Bob Casey and Republican Pat Toomey.
The highlight of the new voter registration figures shows that Carbon County is getting redder by the minute. Last fall, Carbon Republicans overtook Democrats for the first time in modern memory and had an edge of 600. Now, that margin has nearly doubled to 1,135. On the other hand, Schuylkill County, long a GOP bastion, shows that the Republican Party has pulled away by another nearly 900 voters and leads Democrats by almost 13,000.
The other three counties in the Times News area remain firmly in Democrat control, although the growth has not been as strong as it was last year.
Lehigh County has nearly 32,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, but last fall the Republicans trailed by nearly 37,000.
Northampton County has nearly 21,700 more registered Democrats, but, here, too, the Republicans had trailed by nearly 23,000 last fall.
Monroe County has nearly 12,000 more registered Democrats than Republicans, but that number had been 14,545 last fall.
Statewide, Democrats outpace Republicans by about 802,000 registered voters, although last fall it was even higher, 840,000.
When independents, nonpartisans and minor third-party registrations are factored in, the total number of registered voters going into the primaries will be about 8.5 million, compared to 8.6 million last fall.
Among the five counties in our region, only Carbon showed a gain vs. last fall – 0.6%. My contacts in both parties agree that a spirited race for county commissioner has brought some excitement to these primaries.
Northampton showed the steepest drop, down 6.5%. Lehigh has 2.4% fewer registered voters compared to last fall, while Schuylkill and Monroe have 1.4% fewer.
Of course, the number of registered voters is nowhere near the number of actual voters, and that is part of the disgraceful story of the electorate’s failure to participate adequately in the democratic process. It is no secret that voter turnout in the U.S. is much lower than in most established democracies.
In our presidential elections, nearly 60 percent of eligible voters have gone to the polls. That drops off to about 40% during midterm elections, although a record 49.6% turned out nationally last year with the U.S. House of Representatives and Senate at stake. Democrats took control of the House while Republicans boosted their margin in the Senate.
Turnout in off-year elections, such as this year’s, is significantly lower, even though they are considered extremely important because the outcome gives residents more access to their locally elected officials.
By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com