It feels and looks like fall is officially here with cooler temperatures hitting our region this weekend, providing football fans with perfect weather to enjoy the games. As the cooler temperatures make their way throughout the Commonwealth, I hope the Penn State faithful have also cooled down from the Nittany Lions one-point loss to Ohio State two weeks ago.

As I made my preparations for this week’s column, I was still hearing a mixture of melancholy and anger in many of the Penn State fans that talk to me each week over the loss to the Buckeyes. It’s most certainly a disappointing loss, I agree, and it could end up costing Penn State a College Football Playoff berth, but there’s plenty of season left to play and a lot of opportunities for the Nittany Lions to get back into the conversation. There’s just too much football still on the docket to dwell on one loss, especially when that loss is to the No. 3 team in the country.

So, you won’t find any dwelling here. The Ohio State loss is in the past, and with a formidable schedule left to navigate for Penn State, there’s plenty to focus on in the present and to look forward to in the future.

This week, Penn State (4-1, 1-1) will welcome Michigan State (3:30 ET, BTN) to Beaver Stadium for the Nittany Lions 99th Homecoming Game. An added fan aspect to this one will be a stripe out where the fans in attendance will be synchronized in a blue and white stripe pattern throughout the stadium.

The Spartans (3-2, 1-1) are coming into Happy Valley after what has been a disappointing start to the 2018 season. Michigan State, which returned 19 starters from a team that was 10-3 in 2017, surely didn’t expect to have two losses this early in the season.

One of the big reasons for the Spartans’ troubles believe it or not has been their pass defense. Michigan State is allowing an uncharacteristic 305 yards passing per game. That is not an area you want to be struggling in when visiting Beaver Stadium with Trace McSorley at the helm. McSorley kind-of got off to a slow start throwing the football, but he got back on track against Ohio State and has been once again effective throwing the ball downfield.

McSorley has thrown for 1,049 yards, with 10 touchdowns and two interceptions in five games, which is just under 210 yards passing per game. But where the savvy senior is troublesome for opposing defenses is his escape ability paired with his knack to throw the ball deep when on the move. McSorley is averaging 14.3 yards per completion.

In both of the Spartans losses this season they’ve given up huge passing yards – an average of 376.5 yards per game per loss. Both Arizona State (380 yards) and Northwestern (373 yards) were able to consistently throw the football downfield.

Penn State also doesn’t have a shortage of playmakers at the wide receiver position with KJ Hamler (308 yards), Juwan Johnson (202 yards), Brandon Polk (139 yards) and DeAndre Thompkins (111 yards).

As much as Penn State needs to exploit what has been a porous Michigan State pass defense, it must in turn defend the pass much better than it did a year ago against Spartans’ quarterback Brian Lewerke. Lewerke had all day and night to throw the football in their match-up with the Nittany Lions and he made them pay, throwing for 400 yards and two touchdowns in a 27-24 win that came after a long weather delay. Lewerke has his top target from a season ago back as well in Felton Davis III, who had 181 receiving yards against Penn State in 2017. Davis III is a big target at 6-4 and can create match-up issues. Penn State has been doing a pretty good job against the pass this season, allowing under 200 yards per game.

The game plan will be to get pressure on Lewerke, so that there isn’t a repeat of the success he had against Penn State last season. It seems Franklin and his coaching staff – with an extra week to prepare coming off the bye – have been putting a lot of time in to preparing for what Lewerke brings to the table.

“I think obviously, his mobility is a major factor. Being able to make sure that we can take some of those easy throws away from him, keep him in the pocket, so he can’t extend plays. So, I think getting pressure is great, but being able to get pressure in a way that we keep him in the pocket; so, he can’t extend plays,” said Franklin.

“Obviously, our contain rushers and things like that cannot allow him to break contain and get on the perimeter, where now he can hurt you by running the ball, or now our defensive backs have to cover for an extended period of time, which is always challenging.”

Penn State does have some skilled pass rushers in Shareef Miller, Yetur-Gross Matos and Shaka Toney that have helped the NIttany Lions average just over three sacks per game. Welcomed help in the form of Shane Simmons, who is one the best pass rushers on the Penn State roster will be back for the first time this week as well. Getting pressure on Lewerke in my opinion is the most important key for Penn State in this game. Michigan State has allowed 12 sacks on the season.

Las Vegas has Penn State as a 13.5-point favorite.

I think it will be tough for Penn State to run the football, first-of-all, because Michigan State is the No. 1 ranked rushing defense in the country, and secondly, because it sells out against the run. The Spartans defensive game plan every week is to not allow teams to run the football and it’s worked, because opponents are only averaging 33.8 yards per game rushing. I think the Nittany Lions will gain more rushing yards than that with Miles Sanders (107.6 yards per game), but I don’t think there will be much there.

So, that leaves the scoring to Trace McSorley, who I think will have a big game. Look for a 300-plus yard performance and three-plus passing touchdowns from the veteran.

And once again the other and most important key is defensive pressure. If Penn State allows Lewerke time to throw the football and move the chains that will only allow the Spartans to mix in and get their run game going. Michigan State is ranked No. 10 in the country in time of possession. Getting into a battle with the Spartans where they’re able to control the clock is exactly what they want to do.

As I said before, this column isn’t about dwelling in the past. 2017 was almost a year ago and I think this season’s defensive front is a much-improved group and I expect the Penn State defense to get pressure on Lewerke.

My pick is Penn State 38, Michigan State 21.