The improbable meteoric rise of President Donald J. Trump has not only had profound effects on the national political scene, but its mark has been equally startling in Carbon County.

Five years ago, Democrats could brag about a voter-registration margin of 4,173. Today, as you read this, it is likely that Republicans have captured a voter-registration edge in the county, especially if the trend lines for the last five years continued.

According to figures from the Pennsylvania Department of State, going into last Tuesday’s primary elections, both Carbon parties had the same number of registered voters — 18,142.

This is beyond startling, because from a voter registration standpoint, Carbon has always been regarded as reliably Democratic, but no more. The Republican gains have been breathtaking and directly traceable to Trump’s appearance on the political landscape.

Between the spring primaries of 2015 and 2016, Republicans gained nearly 2,000 more registered voters than Democrats. This was roughly the time between when Trump announced that he was a presidential candidate and the presidential primary in 2016.

According to Carbon Democratic Committee Chair Billy O’Gurek Jr., a number of Democrats and independents changed their registration to Republican so they could vote for Trump in the 2016 GOP primary.

Trump’s popularity carried over into the November general election, and he surprised many by carrying Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral votes.

Although Trump won the state by just 44,292 votes out of 5.9 million cast, he received all of the critically important electoral-college votes, because Pennsylvania is a winner-take-all state.

Trump carried 56 of the state’s 67 counties and won 42 of them, including Carbon and Schuylkill, by 30 percent or more. In Bradford County, which borders New York State, he had a mind-boggling 82 percent of the vote compared to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 16 percent.

Trump won handily in Schuylkill County with 70 percent to Clinton’s 29 percent, Carbon with 65 percent to Clinton’s 31 percent. He also edged Clinton in Northampton with 50 percent to Clinton’s 46 percent.

Clinton carried Philadelphia County with 82 percent to Trump’s 16 percent. Clinton also won two local counties — Lehigh with 50.4 percent to Trump’s 45.9 percent and Monroe with 48.4 percent to Trump’s 48.1 percent.

Like most political observers, O’Gurek was blindsided by the intense level of support for Trump that continues, despite his missteps and the chaos surrounding his administration.

“You can’t argue with success,” O’Gurek lamented. He said that Trump struck a responsive chord with voters in many rural counties such as Carbon. “They saw him as a person who didn’t need to become president, who was not obligated to special interests, somebody who spoke his mind without regard for political correctness,” he added.

State Rep. Doyle Heffler, R-Carbon, put it this way: “Only Trump can be Trump.” Heffley said Trump’s agenda of jobs, legal immigration and someone not afraid to speak his mind has played well to Carbon voters. “The economy is booming,” he said.

Former Carbon Democratic Committee Chair Frank Jacobs of Nesquehoning also cited the “Trump factor” as contributing to the Republicans success locally. “We really got a kick in the butt from Trump supporters,” said Jacobs, 85, of Nesquehoning.

Jacobs also believes the premature departure of former State Rep. and House Speaker Keith McCall of Summit Hill started the Democrats’ slide. Jacobs said that McCall’s abrupt decision not to run for re-election in 2010 contributed to the Democrats’ scrambling to find a qualified successor.

In the aftermath of a contentious Democratic primary that year, Heffley was elected and has held the 122nd District seat ever since.

Heffley said the blue-collar values and concerns of Carbon voters have not changed. “They haven’t left the Democratic Party; the party has left them,” Heffley said.

O’Gurek said Democrats need to reinforce the message that they are the future for the middle class and for families and their issues.

Democrats are searching for statewide leadership after the resignation of their chair, Marcel Groen. Gov. Tom Wolf called for Groen’s resignation earlier this year after a series of controversial comments in response to sexual harassment allegations involving high-ranking Democratic lawmakers. A new leader will be chosen in June.

While Carbon Democrats must take care of business this year in making sure that Wolf is re-elected governor and Robert Casey Jr. is re-elected U.S. Senator, they also are looking ahead to next year’s county commissioners’ race with the expectation that Republican Wayne Nothstein and Democrat William O’Gurek Sr. will be retiring at the end of this year.

Attempts to reach Carbon Republican Chair Lee Becker for comments for this column were unsuccessful.

By Bruce Frassinelli | tneditor@tnonline.com